Trade-offs between ecosystem service provision and the predisposition to disturbances : a NFI-based scenario analysis
Julkaisuvuosi
2020
Tekijät
Temperli, Christian; Blattert, Clemens; Stadelmann, Golo; Brändli, Urs-Beat; Thürig, Esther
Tiivistelmä
Background Scenario analyses that evaluate management effects on the long-term provision and sustainability of forest ecosystem services and biodiversity (ESB) also need to account for disturbances. The objectives of this study were to reveal potential trade-offs and synergies between ESB provision and disturbance predisposition at the scale of a whole country. Methods The empirical scenario model MASSIMO was used to simulate forest development and management from years 2016 to 2106 on 5086 sample plots of the Swiss National Forest Inventory (NFI). We included a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and four scenarios of increased timber harvesting. Model output was evaluated with indicators for 1) ESB provision including a) timber production, b) old-growth forest characteristics as biodiversity proxies and c) protection against rockfall and avalanches and 2) for a) storm and b) bark beetle predisposition. Results The predisposition indicators corresponded well (AUC: 0.71–0.86) to storm and insect (mostly bark beetle) damage observations in logistic regression models. Increased timber production was generally accompanied with decreased predisposition (storm: >−11%, beetle: >−37%, depending on region and scenario), except for a scenario that promoted conifers where beetle predisposition increased (e.g. + 61% in the Southern Alps). Decreased disturbance predisposition and decreases in old-growth forest indicators in scenarios of increased timber production revealed a trade-off situation. In contrast, growing stock increased under BAU management along with a reduction in conifer proportions, resulting in a reduction of beetle predisposition that in turn was accompanied by increasing old-growth forest indicators. Disturbance predisposition was elevated in NFI plots with high avalanche and rockfall protection value. Conclusions By evaluating ESB and disturbance predisposition based on single-tree data at a national scale we bridged a gap between detailed, stand-scale assessments and broader inventory-based approaches at the national scale. We discuss the limitations of the indicator framework and advocate for future amendments that include climate-sensitive forest development and disturbance modelling to strengthen decision making in national forest policy making.
Näytä enemmänOrganisaatiot ja tekijät
Julkaisutyyppi
Julkaisumuoto
Artikkeli
Emojulkaisun tyyppi
Lehti
Artikkelin tyyppi
Alkuperäisartikkeli
Yleisö
TieteellinenVertaisarvioitu
VertaisarvioituOKM:n julkaisutyyppiluokitus
A1 Alkuperäisartikkeli tieteellisessä aikakauslehdessäJulkaisukanavan tiedot
Lehti
Kustantaja
Volyymi
7
Artikkelinumero
27
ISSN
Julkaisufoorumi
Julkaisufoorumitaso
1
Avoin saatavuus
Avoin saatavuus kustantajan palvelussa
Kyllä
Julkaisukanavan avoin saatavuus
Kokonaan avoin julkaisukanava
Rinnakkaistallennettu
Kyllä
Muut tiedot
Tieteenalat
Ekologia, evoluutiobiologia; Metsätiede
Avainsanat
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Julkaisumaa
Saksa
Kustantajan kansainvälisyys
Kansainvälinen
Kieli
englanti
Kansainvälinen yhteisjulkaisu
Kyllä
Yhteisjulkaisu yrityksen kanssa
Ei
DOI
10.1186/s40663-020-00236-1
Julkaisu kuuluu opetus- ja kulttuuriministeriön tiedonkeruuseen
Kyllä