2024

Karjunen Hannu; Kinnunen Sini-Kaisu; Laari Arto; Tervonen Antero; Laaksonen Petteri; Kozlova Mariia; Yeomans Julian Scott

Power-to-X (P2X) technology holds great potential for decarbonization and sees an active growth of R&D, pilot projects, and scaling initiatives. Such projects are surrounded by tremendous uncertainty due to their long lifespan, dependency on market and policy evolution, and high upfront costs. Thus, the usage of adequate analytical tools is of paramount importance to design, evaluate, and execute P2X projects. In this chapter, we took one such techno-economic report for a P2X project and replicated its one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis and scenario analysis with the more powerful SimDec approach. The breadth of the newly acquired insights inspired the authors to upgrade the analysis to reflect present-day circumstances in order to determine what findings SimDec could contribute to the evolving situation. In all analyzed cases, SimDec showed an excellent capability of combining uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for deriving comprehensive actionable insights for investment projects.