2023

Kozlova Mariia; Yeomans Julian Scott

Urban planning often involves decision-making under highly uncertain circumstances. System dynamics and multi-agent modeling frameworks are commonly employed to model the social phenomena in this type of urban planning. However, because the outputs from these approaches are regularly characterized as a function of time, the majority of studies in this modeling domain lack appropriate sensitivity analysis. Consequently, important insights into model behavior are frequently overlooked. Monte Carlo simulation has been used to incorporate uncertain features in urban planning with the outputs displayed as probability distributions. Recently simulation decomposition (SimDec) has been used to enhance the visualization of the cause-effect relationships of multi-variable combinations of inputs on the corresponding simulated outputs. SimDec maps each output value of a Monte Carlo simulation on to the multivariable groups of inputs or scenarios from which it originated. By visually projecting the subdivided scenarios onto the overall output, SimDec can reveal previously unidentified influences between the various combinations of inputs on to the outputs. SimDec can be generalized to any Monte Carlo method with insignificant computational overhead and is, therefore, extendable to any simulated urban planning analysis. This study demonstrates the efficacy of adapting SimDec for the sensitivity analysis of urban dynamics modeling on a paradigmatic simplified version of Forrester's Urban Dynamics- URBAN1 model. SimDec reveals complexities in model behavior that are not, and can not be, captured by standard sensitivity analysis methods and highlights, in particular, the intricate joint effect of immigration and outmigration on system development.