1985

Raftery, John

The report is concerned with the techniques of estimating the cost of building projects during the design period. The emphasis is on work which has taken place outside Scandinavia; mostly in the U.K. and the USA. Set against a background of increasing sophistication in computer aided design generally, this report focusses on the cost models that in the future will form one component of computer-aided design (CAD) systems. Existing work in the field is organised in a systematic way in order to meet the following objectives: 1) To identify and describe the most common techniques used in research circles but not yet in practice. 3) To asses the impact of computerization on methods of appraising the cost of construction projects. Recent developments in research and practice are reviewed. Elemental cost planning, in common use throughout Europe in one form or another, is described with particular reference to practice in the U.K. Other cost models are reviewed in four groups. These are statistical methods, simulation methods, life-cycle methods and probabilistic methods. The most exciting future potential seems to rest with the use of simulation, life cycle and probabilistic methods. Simulation methods can (depending on the available data) be highly accurate. In computerised form they offer designers the opportunity to carry out rapid, accurate cost appraisals of developing schemes. Life cycle costing techniques are well known, but not frequently used. Reasons for this are identified in the report. Computerised probabilistic techniques are helpful in constructing more realistic models of an estimator's perception of future costs.