2025

Kuhmonen, Irene; Kuhmonen, Tuomas; Näyhä, Annukka

Rural areas have been largely peripheralised and disempowered by the centralisation characteristic of the era of the fossil economy. The departure from fossil metabolism and the shift towards a circular bioeconomy represent a possibility for improved rural livelihoods. However, while the metabolic nature of a circular bioeconomy is more decentralised than that of the fossil economy, it is unclear whether the centralised social structures and power relations will become decentralised as a result of this transition. In this research, by utilising the approaches offered by futures research, we explored probable and preferable future visions across a set of 10 manifestations of circular bioeconomy in 60 expert interviews. The results indicated that most of the manifestations are likely to scale up through a non-local and centralised pathway, while the preferable visions fostering rural livelihoods would mean more local and decentralised modes of organising. At the same time, due to centralising tendencies, reaching the sustainability targets of a circular bioeconomy is difficult.